Introduction
Good morning, investors. It's Taipei time, Friday, May 28, 2025, at 8:31 a.m. I'm Tim Hao. Half an hour before the market opens, we're here to analyze international financial news.
US Stock Market Performance
The US stock market opened on Monday this week. The Dow Jones index soared by 740 points, ending four consecutive trading days of decline. The continued rise of the US stock market is echoed by the US consumer confidence index, which has rebounded after a five-month decline.
US - EU Negotiations
The negotiation goal between the US and the EU has been postponed to July 9. The EU has been slow to respond to Trump's requirements due to the need to integrate internal opinions from various countries. The US is asking the EU to relax its supervision of technology companies, and the EU is considering a US - Europe agreement. However, the possibility of a priority agreement between East Asian countries still seems relatively high.
US - China Customs War
The customs war between the US and China is just a delay. It remains to be seen whether it will disappear. Also, the announcement time of semiconductor tariffs is uncertain.
US Domestic Public Opinion
We need to observe if there are any signs of a breakthrough in domestic public opinion change in the US. Trump has been in power for about four to five months, and it's unclear if he still has enough public opinion authorization to adopt more radical policies.
Market Data Analysis
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Technical Analysis: After hitting a super long shadow line in April, the market almost recovered the March fall in May. The overall 4 - 5 month wave is relatively large.
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Hard Data: The US latest April long-term tax order dropped by 6.3% in April, less than the market forecast of 7.8%. Excluding transportation projects, the monthly increase in April is 0.2%, better than the fall in March.
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Soft Data: From March to May, the real hard data has not changed much. For example, Taiwan's export rate and export orders are almost the same or slightly higher. But soft data shows extreme changes. In April, there was extreme uncertainty and pessimism, while in May, the market mood suddenly became optimistic.
Taiwan Market
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景气对策信号灯: In April, Taiwan's景气对策信号灯 remained in the yellow and red light, although the score dropped by about 2 points. The manufacturing and sales index is hot due to the AI business model, while the customer side added 1 point to turn it into a red light.
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Stock Price: The stock price in April was quite volatile, turning into a yellow - blue light. But it seems to be recovering in May. The manufacturing new index turned into a blue light, losing 1 point. The factors affecting the警戒信号灯 are mainly the stock price index, the manufacturing business climate test point, and M1B.
Bond Market
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US Bond Market: The bond market has started to have some short-term capital replenishment. Edward Lewis from the Financial Times raised the question of whether the bond market is Trump's only brake flag. The 90-day delay in tariffs is an external factor, but the real factor is the US debt policy. Some investors use the bond interest rate standard to decide the buy-in rate.
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Global Bond Market: Global bond markets are facing problems. In Japan, the largest insurance company suffered huge losses due to the bond market crash. The Japanese government and central bank's policies have led to a structural difficulty in the bond market. In the UK, the 30-year debt rate is rising. In China, the recent issuance of a 50-year super long-term national debt has a relatively high target interest rate, indicating some pressure.
Tariff Negotiations
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US - EU Negotiations: The EU and Trump have agreed on a time for further negotiations. The main topics are the relaxation of technology company supervision and the possibility of reducing value-added tax.
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US - Japan Negotiations: In the US - Japan car negotiation agreement, the tariff rules have changed. If products do not meet the origin requirements, the tariff will be much higher.
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US - Korea Negotiations: The negotiation progress between the US and Korea seems to be lagging. The US has imposed a 25% tariff on South Korea, and there are concerns about its influence on the Korean election.
Harvard Incident
The Trump administration has accused Harvard of assisting the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and allowing the CCP to infiltrate the campus. Trump is asking Harvard to hand over the lists of foreign students, but Harvard is unwilling. The incident shows that the American public opinion may support such actions, which may be related to controlling leftists.
Trump's Policies and Public Support
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Supreme Court Rulings: Many of Trump's policies that were initially blocked by federal judges have been passed by the Supreme Court. For example, the ban on transgender people serving in the military and the cancellation of the temporary protection status of 350,000 Venezuelans.
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Public Opinion: Trump's polls have not been as loose as expected, indicating that he still has a certain degree of public support.
US Stock Market Index
The Dow Jones rose 740.1%, the S&P 500 rose 2.05%, the Nasdaq rose 2.47%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.38%.
Investment Thoughts
Investment is not about pursuing perfect decisions but learning to be responsible for every choice. The market will not always meet our expectations. We need to follow the short-term supply cycle or adopt a regular investment strategy.
Conclusion
Today, we have analyzed various aspects of the market, including the US stock market, bond market, tariff negotiations, and Trump's policies. If you like our program, remember to subscribe, like, and share. We'll meet again tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. for a financial summary. Have a happy day.
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