Introduction
Hello, everyone. Welcome to a professional U.S. stock market channel. I'm Xiao Tao, a market analyst. Today, we'll discuss three major topics: the performance of three strong stocks despite the U.S. stock market fall, the recent CPI data and its implications, and the ongoing events between China and the United States, as well as other market-related news.
Video Update Frequency
Recently, the frequency of my video updates has dropped compared to before. In April, I did live broadcasts every day, but in May and June, the market was relatively stable, and I had more time to rest. I understand some audience members may not be satisfied, so I've come up with a solution. If there are important events or data, I'll do a live stream for half an hour to an hour. When the market is not very fluctuating, I'll still provide content to meet your needs. Let me know in the comments if this works for you.
Asset Price Trends
Dollar Index and U.S. Debt
The CPI data on Wednesday was very good, leading to a decline in the dollar index and the U.S. debt rate. The tlt rebounded, but only by 0.3%. The two-year U.S. debt rate fell the most, mainly affected by the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's actions. The long-term U.S. debt rate is mainly influenced by the economy and the U.S. Treasury Department's situation.
Stock Market
The three major indexes ended with modest gains. After the CPI data came out, the stock market showed a slight rise, but the increase was not very large. A good news not causing a significant market increase may indicate that the market had already priced in the optimistic mood before the data release.
Gold and Oil
Gold rebounded by 0.9% due to the potential warming of the situation in the Middle East. The United States withdrew from the embassy in the Middle East, and the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States were not smooth. Oil prices rose by 5% on Wednesday, expecting the situation in the Middle East to escalate.
Sector Performance
The energy board was flat today. Looking at YTD, the Biaopu 500 has risen to 2.4%, the NAZI 1.6 to 0.8%, and the chip board has caught up and risen by 5.1%. The chip board has rebounded significantly from its lowest point.
CPI Data Analysis
The CPI data announced on Wednesday was better than the market expected. The core return rate increase was 0.1%, and the market share was 0.3%. The food inflation return rate increase was 0.3%, energy dropped by 1%, and product inflation did not show a rebound. Service inflation was stable, with rent at 0.3% and medical service at 0.2%. Transportation service was negative 0.2%, and entertainment and education services had small changes. Overall, the CPI data was positive.
Tariffs and Inflation
There are two possible situations regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. The first is that companies have absorbed the tariffs, which should be reflected in increased EPS, but we haven't seen that yet. The second is that tariffs have not yet been reflected in CPI. I think the second case is more likely. Wall Street expects inflation to rebound by the end of the year, and the drop in the dollar index also needs to be considered. The market is now trading the potential future inflation rebound, so the current CPI data may not be as important.
China-U.S. Tariffs and Negotiations
Trump said that the tariffs between China and the United States have a deal, but it seems to be a misunderstanding. The deal is mainly about maintaining the original U.S. tariffs on China and adding some additional tariffs. There is no real agreement between China and the United States. The recent negotiation focus is on China opening the export of rare earths to the United States, and other issues are not discussed.
Obama and Trump's Relationship
Obama sent a tweet on Tuesday morning, expressing regret for his attack on Trump last week. This can be seen as a signal for the two to reconcile for a short period. The whole struggle lasted six days, and through this argument, the relationship between them may have changed.
Tesla Robotaxi Service
The old horse said that the launch of Tesla Robotaxi service may be on June 22nd. I don't think this is a very big event, but it is within Wall Street's forecast. When the event is fully customized, we need to see how much Robotax has launched and the market's reaction.
Member Video and Circle
Some audience members complained about me putting valuable videos in the member video section. I think it's reasonable because I need to be responsible for my members. However, I understand everyone's desire to understand Circle, so I'll put a 10-minute version of the member video in a free video this weekend or next week. Regarding Circle's PE of 150 times, I agree that it's expensive according to the current profit and loss model. But the future development of stable currency may not be limited to the current model, and Circle's profit model may also change.
Fudumumu Activity
Fudumumu is having an activity in the U.S. market. Opening a stock and entering the market can get up to 60 stocks free of charge and an 8.1% annual return on cash funds. In Canada, the highest cash income can get 6% of this return. New customers can also get cash rewards for entry.
Conclusion
That's all for today's content. Don't forget to leave your suggestions or opinions in the comments section for future updates. See you next time.
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