AOMO Tech Talk: AI Trends and the Semiconductor Industry
This article summarizes a recent AOMO Tech Talk episode featuring Chen Liangrong of AOMO and Chen Zhenghua (aka Jian Zhang), CEO of R&D Co., Ltd., along with analyst Mr. Jian. The discussion focuses on the current state of AI, the semiconductor industry, and the impact of these trends on various companies and their supply chains.
The AI Boom and Market Growth
The conversation begins by highlighting the impressive growth rates of companies involved in AI, such as Hwida, Taiji, and Guangda. This rapid growth, however, raises concerns about the sustainability of the current demand and whether a potential oversupply situation might emerge.
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Hwida's recent performance boasts a 69% growth.
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Taiji saw a 43% growth in the first four months.
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Guangda experienced a dramatic 80% growth.
ASIC vs. GPU: A Continuing Debate
A recurring theme is the potential for ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) to replace GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) in certain AI applications. The discussion explores the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, particularly concerning cost-effectiveness and flexibility.
TSMC's Role and Optimistic Outlook on Robotics
The talk touches upon Wei Zhejia's shareholder talks, specifically focusing on the impact of exchange rates on profits and the company's optimistic outlook on the robotics industry.
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Wei Zhejia acknowledged the influence of exchange rates on the company's profit forecast.
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TSMC is estimated to manufacture around 2-3 million units per year in the robot market by 2030.
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The speakers think TSMC is being optimistic.
Supply and Demand Dynamics in the AI Infrastructure Market
The discussion delves into the dynamics of supply and demand in the AI infrastructure market. While demand is rapidly increasing, driven by applications like AI-powered image and video generation, concerns remain about whether supply can keep pace and avoid an oversupply situation.
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The number of tokens Google processes monthly has increased 50-fold in a year.
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OpenAI's monthly active users (NAUs) are approaching 600 million.
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The demand for computing power for inference is growing rapidly, exceeding the demand for training models.
ASIC's Growing Importance and CSP Strategies
The article explains that Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) like Google and Amazon are increasingly investing in their own ASICs for specific AI workloads. This shift is driven by the desire for greater cost-efficiency and optimization compared to general-purpose GPUs.
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CSPs are shifting budget to ASIC as the production of NVIDIA's GB200 got delayed.
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NVIDIA's GB200 challenges every element and aspect of design, meaning all parts are problematic.
NVIDIA's Challenges and Market Share
The discussion acknowledges that NVIDIA is facing challenges in bringing its GB200 system to market on time, potentially leading to a temporary loss of market share to CSPs utilizing their own ASICs.
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NVIDIA's GB200 system faces potential delays due to its complex design and challenging the limits of technology.
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NVIDIA needs to continue to push their suppliers and the manufacturing process even if something is not ready.
The Apple Model and Supply Chain Control
The conversation draws parallels between NVIDIA's approach and Apple's, highlighting NVIDIA's increasing control over its supply chain and its efforts to incorporate more in-house components. However, it is noted that NVIDIA's market differs from Apple's. The company must push technology to the limit.
Making Money in the NVIDIA Ecosystem
Despite the challenges, the article suggests that the NVIDIA ecosystem presents opportunities for suppliers to make money. Partners that can keep up with NVIDIA's rapid pace of innovation and meet its demanding requirements are likely to be successful. NVIDIA is just your partner not your client.
How The Speaker Conducts His Research
Chen Zhenghua explains that he spends his days monitoring the market and his nights connecting with people to gather information. He stated that, unlike short-term traders, he doesn't have to stay glued to his office the whole time.
Computex Insights
Chen Zhenghua discusses Computex, the leading global ICT and IoT trade show held annually in Taipei, Taiwan, stating that he has seen nothing new this year. He also makes a point that the most exciting thing that he has seen this year is the introduction of new international partners, such as Vertif.
Lianfa's ASIC Opportunity
The discussion explores Lianfa's (MediaTek's) potential in the ASIC market. While Lianfa primarily focuses on ASSPs (Application-Specific Standard Products), its strong technical capabilities position it well to assist CSPs in developing custom ASICs.
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Lianfa (MediaTek) has the ability to help with ASSP.
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However, ASIC development is very challenging.
The Risk and Reward of ASIC Development
The article emphasizes the high failure rate associated with ASIC development. Many projects fail to reach mass production, and even successful projects may be short-lived if customers decide to bring chip design in-house.