The Concerning Outlook for Chinese Graduates
An expert on Shanghai's issues recently discussed the future employment prospects for the over 12 million college graduates entering the workforce this June. The situation is causing anxiety for both students and their families, as the job market faces considerable challenges.
The Looming Peak and Potential Job Shortages
Data from 2020 projects a steady increase in the number of graduates until 2038. This peak in 2038 means the highest number of graduates entering society, potentially requiring a 3-5 year period for job market digestion. While the sheer volume suggests opportunity, concerns remain about the availability of suitable, high-quality jobs. The analyst also pointed out that the market is expected to decline after 2040.
Manufacturing Competitiveness vs. Job Creation
While China's manufacturing sector maintains strong competitiveness, a lack of quality job creation poses a significant threat to future graduates. Many industries are currently reducing capacity and laying off employees, as highlighted in recent reports involving companies like TOTO, Bank of America, and 58.com.
AI, Automation and the Disappearing Job Market
The increasing adoption of AI and automation further exacerbates the issue. AI is replacing numerous roles, from routine tasks to more complex operations. Even civil service positions, once highly sought after, are now filled with highly qualified individuals, reflecting increased competition. The self-media industry, once a promising avenue, is also becoming saturated, with established influencers reporting declining incomes.
The Illusion of Self-Media Success
The idea that graduates can simply become online influencers and generate income is unrealistic. The self-media landscape is intensely competitive, demanding authenticity and compelling content to attract viewers. Building a successful channel is a difficult and often unsustainable path.
Shrinking Opportunities and Stiff Competition
Even in established sectors like finance, brokerages and non-profit institutions are facing challenges. AI is replacing roles, and state-owned enterprises are shrinking their workforce. The job market is a shrinking pie, resulting in fierce competition and fewer opportunities for everyone.
External Factors Impacting Employment
External factors, such as trade restrictions from the United States and the European Union's G7, also contribute to the challenging job market. Export growth has stagnated, placing even greater pressure on the domestic job market.
The Hope for Technological Breakthroughs
There is hope for a technological breakthrough that could stimulate job creation and improve the overall economic outlook. Without such advancements, the trend of internal competition and dwindling resources will likely continue.
The Illusion of "Rolling Out"
While some suggest seeking opportunities abroad, the analyst believes that overseas markets are becoming increasingly saturated. The consensus, even among those who previously praised opportunities in Europe and America, is that finding employment is difficult.
Overseas Job Market Challenges
Many Chinese individuals who moved to Europe and America are struggling to find jobs. They may be hesitant to admit the difficulty to prevent further competition. The reality is that young people overseas are facing similar challenges.
Japan: A Difficult Path for Chinese Graduates
The analyst warns against the misconception that Japan offers easy employment opportunities. While some agents may promote this idea, many students attending language schools or pursuing further education struggle to find jobs after graduation.
Challenges for Chinese Workers in Japan
Chinese workers in Japan often face a "hidden ceiling," encountering difficulty in promotions and opportunities compared to workers from Vietnam or India. This can be attributed to a variety of factors, including language proficiency and cultural integration. Early immersion in the Japanese language and culture can mitigate this, but a later start can present significant hurdles.
Exploitation of Japan's Medical System
The analyst highlights a disturbing trend: some international students are exploiting Japan's medical system. Unlike some countries, Japan does not have a waiting period for accessing health insurance, allowing individuals to seek medical treatment immediately upon arrival. This kindness is being abused by some, potentially leading to stricter regulations in the future.
A Call for Discussion and Realistic Expectations
The analyst encourages viewers to share their thoughts and discuss the employment data. He maintains a pessimistic outlook and urges viewers to approach the job market with realistic expectations.