Introduction
-
Date and Time: It's 8:31 am on Friday, July 4, 2025, Taipei time.
-
Host: Greetings, everyone! I'm You Tinghao. Every morning, half an hour before the market opens, we're here to accompany you and interpret international financial news and current affairs changes.
Upcoming Event: Third Season Listeners' Meeting
-
Time: Tomorrow night at 8 o'clock.
-
Content: Each quarter, we conduct some market trend deductions and review asset operations and market judgments from the past quarter. The live broadcast mainly shares market dynamics, while most operations and actual views are shared in our subscription system and listeners' meetings. We search for long-term market rules in the listeners' meetings. If you're interested in our content, you're welcome to participate. Our annual subscription system includes the right to attend all listeners' meetings in the coming year, as well as my personal special topic videos, macro professional reports, and related courses. You can also learn about the stage of the current business cycle through this listeners' meeting. Everyone has different learning channels and operation methods, and it's important to think from different perspectives.
Concept of "Dark Ability"
-
Definition: It refers to the ability you develop while doing one thing, which may not be monetized immediately. For example, listening to our program may cultivate some "dark abilities" that could potentially help you find new business opportunities, jobs, or improve your professional skills in the future.
-
Example: When Alibaba launched Double Eleven, it needed to handle huge traffic, which improved its network technology capabilities. Later, this ability was applied to the development of Aliyun. Similarly, listening to our program may unconsciously help you develop good habits like going to bed early and getting up early, or gain new knowledge and perspectives.
Market Situation and Tariff News
-
Market Performance: The market is showing a trend of overall optimism. Yesterday's non-farm payrolls data was much better than expected, indicating a strong labor market. The S&P and Nasdaq both reached new historical highs, and the Dow Jones is approaching its previous high. The dollar is strengthening, and US bonds are under pressure.
-
Tariff News:
-
"Big and Beautiful" Bill: US President Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the final hurdle in Congress before Independence Day on July 4, which is a significant political victory.
-
Tariff Announcement: Trump announced that he will gradually announce new tax rates to various countries. The progress of the trade agreement with India before July 9 is also a focus of attention.
-
Tariff Impact: The tariff measures have had a certain impact on the market. For example, Vietnam has taken the lead in accepting high tariffs, and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax reduction bill is expected to become the mainstream of policy stimulus in the second half of the year.
-
Tariff Negotiations and Observations
-
Vietnam: Due to its heavy dependence on the US market, Vietnam has been forced to make concessions. It has purchased 80 billion US dollars worth of 50 Boeing aircraft.
-
India: India has a large domestic market and is less dependent on the US market. It has agreed to purchase a large amount of agricultural products from the US this week, but the extent of its sacrifice of the domestic market remains to be seen.
-
China: The tariff rate on China has been relatively high. If a 40% transit tax is added, the market pressure will be even greater. However, Vietnam's 60% of imports come from China, and it remains to be seen whether Vietnam has the ability to transfer costs.
-
Japan: The trade negotiations between the US and Japan are currently deadlocked. It is expected that Japan will make concessions after the end of the Senate election. The two sides are mainly stuck on issues such as agriculture and automobiles.
-
Other Countries: The UK has reached an agreement on automobile tariffs with the US. The EU is also negotiating with the US, and the focus is on the digital service tax. Canada has withdrawn the digital service tax and agreed to restart negotiations. South Korea is also actively negotiating with the US. Taiwan's trade agreement with the US is expected to be reached, and the market is optimistic about the outcome.
Impact of Tariffs on the US
-
Tariff Revenue: The US tariff revenue in May reached 24.2 billion US dollars, and it is expected to continue to increase in June, which has brought a certain amount of funds to the federal government.
-
Deficit Impact: Although the tariff revenue can partially offset the fiscal deficit, the impact is limited. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars in the long run.
Trump's Domestic Policy Victories
-
"Big and Beautiful" Bill: The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214, and Trump will sign it today. This bill is expected to have a certain impact on the bond market.
-
Court Rulings: The Supreme Court has ruled that the federal court does not have the power to issue a nationwide injunction, which means that Trump's administrative orders can be implemented smoothly. This is a significant victory for Trump's domestic policy.
US Economic Situation
-
Service Industry PMI: The US service industry PMI in June continued to expand, indicating that the service industry is in a good state of development.
-
Employment Market: The US non-farm payrolls data in June was much better than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since February this year. The employment market is strong, and the illegal immigration deportation policy has had a positive impact on the unemployment rate.
-
Inflation and Interest Rates: Although the employment market is strong, the wage growth rate has slowed down, and inflation is not out of control. Therefore, the possibility of a rate cut is postponed, but not significantly.
Stock Market Performance
-
US Stock Market: The US stock market performed well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 344 points, or 0.77%, to close at 44,828 points; the S&P 500 Index rising 51 points, or 0.83%, to close at 6,279 points, reaching a new historical high; the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 207 points, or 1.02%, to close at 20,601 points, also reaching a new historical high; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 36 points, or 0.67%, to close at 5,647 points.
-
Taiwan Stock Market: The Taiwan stock market rose 85 points to close at 22,798 points, and the TAIEX rose 125 points. The performance of the Taiwan stock market is relatively weak compared to the US stock market.
Book Recommendations
-
"Technology and the Rise of Great Powers": This book explores how technology determines the rise and fall of great powers from a historical perspective. It analyzes the impact of important technological breakthroughs on world changes over the past 200 years.
-
"Generative Financial Crisis: When AI Takes Over Trading, the Next Global Economic Crisis": This book discusses the potential impact of AI on the financial market. As AI is increasingly used in financial transactions, it may bring new challenges and risks to the global economy.
Conclusion
-
Summary: Today, we have analyzed the market situation, tariff news, and economic situation, and recommended two books. We hope that these contents can provide some reference for your investment.
-
Invitation: If you like our program, please subscribe, like, and share. We will meet again at the listeners' meeting tomorrow. Wish you all a smooth trading day!
{# 
{# 
{# 
{# 
{#