Understanding Chinese Policy Behavior and the CCP's Political Ecology
This article analyzes the current state of Chinese policy behavior, the political dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the implications of these dynamics on the Chinese economy. It also touches upon historical events and personal anecdotes to illustrate the evolution of the CCP's power structure.
The Decline of Policy Behavior Premised on Xi Jinping
Recent years have seen a decline in the effectiveness and impact of policies that are explicitly based on Xi Jinping's ideology or directives. The speaker notes a widespread folk custom in the Northeast, the year 73 and 84 are dangerous. It's like policy decisions based on Xi Jinping's pronouncements are losing traction. This is indicative of deeper problems within the system.
CCP Political Ecology: A Network of Nodes
Understanding the CCP's political ecology requires recognizing it as a network of nodes, similar to company politics. Political struggles often involve positions and factions rather than individual actors.
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Example: In state-owned companies, investment projects often require unanimous votes to pass.
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This mechanism serves as a form of collective responsibility, shielding individuals from blame if something goes wrong.
The Role of State-Owned Enterprises and Financial Institutions
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and financial institutions often engage in meaningless activities primarily for personal gain and to avoid responsibility. Funds in cities like Guangzhou are cited as examples of this behavior. The speaker mentions specific individuals and their questionable qualifications.
Power Dynamics Within the CCP
The CCP's power structure is characterized by internal conflicts and power struggles.
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A chairman's project might be opposed by a faction of general managers, and vice versa.
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This dynamic often leads to inaction and gridlock.
The CCP's political model is compared to that of bandits, where loyalty and self-interest are paramount. Central nodes rely on secondary nodes to control the will. The anti-corruption campaigns are described as Xi Jinping's attempt to infiltrate and control these nodes, extending even to local levels.
The Weakening of Xi Jinping's Power
Xi Jinping's power is argued to be weakening due to the shrinking Chinese economy. The system relies on the economy to sustain itself and the power is fueled.
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The government needs to extract resources from the economy.
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However, Xi Jinping's policies have caused the economy to deteriorate.
This creates a situation where the bureaucratic system becomes parasitic, ultimately harming the host (the Chinese economy).
The CCP's Dependency on Economic Growth
The CCP's legitimacy and power are intrinsically linked to China's economic growth.
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Economic growth provides the CCP with a source of legitimacy.
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The operation of power requires extracting resources from the economy.
The CCP's power operation has evolved into a market-driven system with politics deeply embedded. The collapse of the market or economy could lead to a complete political crisis.
Historical Perspective: The Speaker's Grandfather's Experience
The speaker shares anecdotes about their grandfather, a member of the Communist Party during the Chinese Civil War. His experience showed the harsh realities of war and the ruthless tactics employed by both the Communist and Nationalist forces. The grandfather witnessed the siege of Changchun and the suffering of the civilian population.
Kuomintang and CCP: A Comparison
The speaker argues that the CCP inherited the political logic of the Kuomintang but with a lower bottom line. Both parties were products of a "poisonous seed," but the CCP is considered more vicious. The speaker suggests comparing history textbooks from Taiwan and mainland China to illustrate the similarities and differences in their narratives.
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