Quantum computing, once perceived as a slow-moving field, has recently experienced a surge of progress. This rapid development suggests that commercially viable quantum computers may arrive sooner than anticipated, potentially posing both opportunities and risks.
IBM's New Quantum Computing Plan
Error Correction Breakthrough
IBM has announced a new initiative to develop a commercially relevant quantum computer based on superconducting circuits. A key element of this plan is a novel error-correcting algorithm. This algorithm significantly reduces the number of physical qubits required for error correction.
Logical Qubits and Scalability
Qubits are prone to errors, requiring redundancy through additional qubits to correct them. IBM's improvement reduces the overhead needed for this redundancy by approximately 90%. This would allow them to deliver 200 logical (fully error-corrected) qubits by 2029, and 2,000 logical qubits a few years later. This milestone could enable commercially relevant applications, estimated to require around 150 logical qubits. However, IBM still faces the challenge of scaling up its platform from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of physical qubits.
Potential for Breaking RSA Encryption
Gdney's Argument
A recent preprint by Greg Gdney of Google Quantum AI suggests that quantum computers may be able to break RSA encryption much earlier than previously expected. Breaking RSA encryption is a key application for quantum computers.
Reduced Computational Burden
Gdney argues that quantum computers with under 1 million noisy (not fully error-corrected) qubits could factor 2048-bit RSA in roughly a week. This is a significant reduction in time compared to a 2019 estimate of 8 hours with 20 million physical qubits. Algorithmic improvements have reduced the computational burden, and this also does not take the IBM error correction improvement into account.
Implications for Data Security
The potential for quantum computers to break RSA encryption poses a serious threat because RSA has been used to encrypt digital data for decades. Intelligence organizations possessing sensitive, currently unreadable data may be able to access it with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, potentially leading to significant political consequences.
Advances in Qubit Technology
Oxford's World Record
Researchers from the University of Oxford have reported a new world record in qubit quality, achieving an error rate of just one in 6.7 million operations. This milestone was achieved using a trapped ion qubit, showcasing the rapid development across different quantum computing technologies.
Skepticism and Further Learning
Uncertainties Remain
Despite these advancements, the speaker expresses skepticism about the near-term arrival of useful quantum computers, citing concerns about controlling the chaotic behavior of complex systems with many qubits.
Brilliant.org Quantum Course
For those interested in learning more about quantum physics, a course on Brilliant.org is recommended. The course covers topics like wave functions, superposition, entanglement, interference, the uncertainty principle, and Bell's theorem, and it includes interactive visualizations. A special offer of a 30-day free trial and 20% off the annual premium subscription is available through the provided link/QR code.
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