The Creation, Destruction, and Evolution of Tech Jobs
This article aims to provide an overview of how tech jobs are created, destroyed, and how this process has evolved over the last 35 years. The current impact of generative AI on the programming industry, for better or worse, is also discussed. The information presented here is based on personal experiences in the industry since 1989, with the caveat that experiences may vary.
Generative AI and the Future of Programming
The author believes that generative AIs are impacting the programming industry and will continue to improve. While AIs equivalent to human intelligence are expected in the future, current models are not capable of that, and it will likely take a decade or more. If the hype around super AI is correct, then the entire job market for programmers and other white-collar workers is about to change completely.
How Tech Differs from Other Sectors
The tech sector is unique because most of it has been custom-built in recent decades. This is unlike other parts of the economy, which remain largely unchanged except for tech-enabled advancements. Understanding this distinction is important because all programmer jobs fall on a spectrum, ranging from building systems from scratch to maintaining existing ones.
Programming vs. Construction: An Imperfect Analogy
Programming is sometimes compared to construction, which is both a good and a bad analogy. It's similar to construction centuries ago, before standardization, when every structure was custom-built using local materials. However, modern construction is standardized, whereas programming largely is not.
This lack of standardization has two main implications:
-
There are no absolutes and there are always exceptions in the tech industry.
-
The best place to start is at the beginning, with the initial creation of a system.
The Genesis of a Tech Job: Idea and Funding
Generally, a tech job starts with an idea and the acquisition of funding to develop it. This might involve a solo entrepreneur seeking investment or an established company allocating a budget to a new project or service.
The Role of Money and Interest Rates
Money for new projects can come from surplus revenue, loans, or investors. High interest rates increase the financial burden and expectations for a project to succeed.
The Team: Employees, Consultants, and Recruiters
After securing funding, the idea person needs to assemble a technical team. This can involve hiring employees, consultants, or a combination of both. Ideally, the first hire is a senior tech person to validate the idea and create a plan. Regardless, recruiters are crucial to finding the right talent.
The Hiring Process: Compromises and Adjustments
The hiring process is rarely ideal. The availability and skillsets of candidates influence the roles that can be filled, requiring compromises. Decisions have to be made about whether to wait for the ideal candidate or hire someone who can learn. Sometimes positions are even eliminated altogether.
Proactive Hiring and the "Fungible" Programmer
Some large companies have historically adopted a proactive hiring strategy, employing programmers continuously in anticipation of future needs. This spawned the concept of "fungible" programmers, interchangeable individuals hired for generic skills. This approach is less common now due to economic shifts and the rise of AI.
The Impact of AI: A Brief Detour
AI is impacting the job market in several ways:
-
AI can perform as well as many entry-level programmers.
-
AI is flooding job postings with applications.
-
Investors are prioritizing AI-driven growth over revenue.
Because of all of this, companies are cutting staff for stock buybacks. This leads to more supply and less demand for programmers.
The End of a Tech Job: Layoffs and Budget Cuts
Programming positions can end due to layoffs. These can be caused by shutting down products, company failures, or budget cuts. Managers might be forced to eliminate positions, sometimes even taking risks by cutting essential roles in hopes that AI will fill the gap.
Navigating the Current Tech Landscape
The current tech environment is characterized by a perfect storm: stock buyers prioritize AI hype over revenue, enabling companies to cut costs and drive up stock prices. The AI bubble will eventually pop, bringing rationality back to business, or AI is going to reach human levels and the entire job market will be completely different forever.
What To Do if AI Doesn't Reach Human Levels Soon
For those who believe AI won't reach human levels for a decade or longer, it's important to remain calm and adapt. The industry has faced similar challenges before. The focus on hiring those who can answer LeetCode questions is a relatively recent trend that is now waning.
The Importance of Problem-Solving Over Specific Technologies
The key to a long career is to focus on solving problems, defining solutions, and meeting requirements, rather than fixating on specific technologies. Emphasize understanding how things work and being able to troubleshoot unfamiliar systems.
The Value of Networking and Relationships
The old methods of applying for jobs online are becoming less effective. Instead, focus on finding jobs through other people. This involves getting to know recruiters and making connections with past colleagues and classmates. Networking, referrals, and personal contacts are responsible for a large percentage of hires.
Recommended books on networking and job hunting include Dig Your Well Before You're Thirsty, Never Eat Alone, and What Color Is Your Parachute.
Building a professional network takes effort but is more effective than other approaches. Avoid easy or effortless solutions that may be scams or misinformed advice.
{# 
{#