The rise of AI has sparked concerns about its potential to replace programming jobs. Companies are implementing hiring freezes and developer layoffs, leading to speculation that software development as we know it might soon be obsolete. This article explores the current reality of AI's impact on programming, drawing from the experiences of a software development company owner.
Credentials and Experience
To offer an informed opinion, it's crucial to have diverse experience:
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Suite Decision-Making Experience: Piloting projects from a high level.
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Project Management Experience: Managing projects with defined goals and objectives, working with development teams.
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Hands-On Programming Experience: Working with various languages, compiled systems, frameworks, libraries, and developers.
The author, Cameron, possesses all these qualifications. He runs a multi-million dollar software development company that has worked on complex projects for major organizations like NASA, Steelcase, and Bissell. He has been coding since the age of 10 and has extensive, daily experience.
AI's Current Capabilities and Limitations
While it would be self-serving to dismiss AI's potential, it's essential to be honest about its current state. AI has brought significant changes to coding, but it's not a complete replacement for human programmers.
Positive Impacts of AI in Coding
The introduction of AI in coding has led to several improvements:
- Reduced Debugging Time: AI excels at identifying syntax errors and logical inconsistencies, significantly reducing the time spent debugging. It automates approximately 50-75% of the author's daily debugging tasks. However, its effectiveness decreases with the obscurity of the problem. AI may sometimes offer solutions that lead down unproductive paths.
- Combating Writer's Block: AI can generate first drafts of code, providing a starting point and something to refine, much like using a first draft in writing. Even if the initial output isn't perfect, it helps programmers overcome writer's block and get into the flow.
- Immediate Mid-Level Programmer Assistance: AI functions well as an immediate junior or mid-level programming assistant, capable of completing tasks like finishing loops or building similar functionalities with specified requirements. This is particularly useful for companies with established products and codebases.
- Serving as a "Duck": AI can act as a sounding board, similar to the "rubber duck debugging" technique where programmers explain their code to an inanimate object to clarify their thinking. The conversational aspect of interacting with AI can be helpful in this regard.
Improved Project Estimation
AI assistance makes it easier to estimate project timelines and costs, leading to more accurate quotes for clients. By improving efficiency in debugging and junior-level coding, AI reduces the uncertainty that often inflates project estimates. This leads to more approved quotes and completed projects.
AI's Limitations and the Future of Programming
While AI has demonstrated rapid growth and value, there are still significant gaps requiring human input and expertise. AI cannot yet replace knowledgeable programmers or project leaders.
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AI is currently unable to understand complex systems, business goals, and how to integrate them into code architecture. It also lacks the capacity to create scalable solutions within a client's budget.
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Programmers who simply implement requirements will likely become obsolete. However, programmers who understand complex systems, business goals, and can drive large-scale projects will become even more valuable.
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These programmers will act as "agile pilots," utilizing AI and other tools to navigate complex projects at high speeds.
Programming is evolving into a role similar to a modern trip planner, coordinating various resources and technologies to achieve a desired outcome.
Final Thoughts
Despite AI's potential to plateau, humans will remain valuable for solving problems. It's not certain what changes the future will bring, however, our tried and true patterns will change, but the world will always have issues that need solving. Programmers will continue to fill this role. We are on the precipice of a wild ride. Despite all of this, humans will be valuable for work for quite a while, but it will definitely not look the same.