Hello everyone. Today, we'll discuss the declining rates of marriage and childbirth, particularly the drastic situation in East Asia. The trend toward smaller families is undeniable, and the numbers are alarming.
The Alarming Decline in Fertility Rates
East Asia's Demographic Winter
East Asia is experiencing a particularly severe drop in fertility rates. South Korea's total fertility rate has plummeted to a staggering 0.78, meaning on average, a woman will have less than one child in her lifetime. Japan hovers around 1.3, barely above the "minimum fertility trap." China, too, has seen a drop to 1.2. This constitutes a "population avalanche," far beyond a simple decrease in the desire to have children.
Understanding the Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate measures a society's reproductive capacity. A rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. A rate of 1.3 is the "minimum fertility trap," which is difficult to escape. East Asian countries are currently trapped in this pit, even more so than some Western European nations.
The Speed of the Decline
The speed of this decline is shocking. In a single generation, societies that once encouraged large families now seem afraid to talk about having children at all.
Why the Decline?
Common Explanations
Many attribute the decline to factors such as high housing prices and demanding work environments (996 work culture). These pressures certainly contribute, but they don't fully explain the depth of the crisis. Many European countries face similar issues but haven't experienced such a dramatic collapse in fertility rates.
Claudia Goldin's Perspective: The Cultural Lag
Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin offers a new perspective. She argues that the core issue isn't solely economic development, but rather the lag in cultural norms, particularly the division of labor between men and women within the family. It's like driving a high-speed train with a green train-era mindset.
Two Groups of Countries
Goldin divides countries into two groups:
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Slow-Developing Nations: Countries like Denmark, Sweden, and the United States, with steady economic growth, have fertility rates that decline gradually and stabilize between 1.6 and 1.9.
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Rapidly Developing Nations: Countries like Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Spain experienced rapid economic miracles post-World War II. Their fertility rates plummeted after initial booms.
Conflicts Behind the Decline
Gender Conflict: Unequal Burden
The first conflict is gender-based. If women bear most of the childcare and household responsibilities, they become overextended. The unequal distribution of labor significantly reduces a woman's willingness to have children. The scales tip negatively against motherhood.
Intergenerational Conflict: Differing Expectations
The second conflict is intergenerational, occurring between husband and wife regarding traditional values. Men may cling to traditional family concepts, while women, empowered by education and career opportunities, seek more equitable relationships and personal fulfillment. Conflicting expectations regarding family roles and aspirations make reaching a consensus on having children extremely difficult. This can lead to compromise or resentment.
The Difficulty of Consensus
The result is not simply a dislike of children, but rather the extreme difficulty of reaching a consensus within the family on the future. These inconsistencies stem from differing expectations about life and differing degrees of attachment to past traditions.
The East Asian Experience: Migration and Reshaped Values
East Asia and Southern Europe have experienced significant and concentrated population migration. Within a few decades, populations have shifted from rural to urban settings, reshaping lifestyles, values, and family structures.
Generational Divide
Consider a boy born in South Korea around 1980, raised with traditional values and expectations to marry a "virtuous" wife. Contrast this with a Korean girl of the same age, who benefits from economic growth, equal education, and career opportunities. These two individuals have vastly different life scripts. When such individuals marry, their expectations are often misaligned, leading to conflict when issues like childbearing arise.
Mismatched Software and Hardware
The fundamental issue is the failure of families to adapt to changes in the outside world. The "software" of family concepts does not match the "hardware" of economic development.
The Core Issue: Unfair Housework
Ultimately, the issue comes down to unfair housework. It's not just economic pressure; women are concerned about the time commitment. Childcare is a "black hole" consuming personal space, and women are often the default caretakers.
Data on Unpaid Labor
Data reveals the disparity. In countries with plummeting fertility rates, the gap in unpaid housework and care between men and women can be as high as 3 hours per day. In countries with stable fertility rates, the gap is less than an hour.
The Speed of Synchronization
The speed of fertility decline depends on the synchronization of women's advancement in education and the workplace with men's increased involvement in family care.
The Ineffectiveness of Financial Incentives
Many countries offer financial incentives for childbirth, but their impact is minimal. These incentives don't address the core issue of the division of labor within the family.
Paternity Leave: A Cultural Barrier
Even with policies like paternity leave, societal culture and workplace pressures often prevent men from taking advantage of them. Women continue to bear the brunt of childcare responsibilities.
The Role of Men
Claudia Goldin emphasizes that raising children requires time, which cannot be outsourced. Fertility rates will only improve when men take on more responsibilities in the family. Without this shift, women face a painful choice between career and family, and the resulting sacrifice is reflected in the declining fertility rates.
A Social Concept Revolution
Encouraging childbirth requires a social revolution. Men must genuinely recognize that raising children is a shared responsibility, demanding joint investment of time and energy. When responsibilities are shared fairly, and women no longer fear deprivation, fertility rates may rise. This is a difficult but essential path.
Thank you.