The Mar-a-Lago Agreement: A Conspiracy Theory Gaining Traction
The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is a controversial term steeped in conspiracy theories involving secret societies and global domination. Initially dismissed by mainstream media, the policies enacted during Donald Trump's presidency have led many to reconsider its potential validity. Could this mysterious agreement actually be real?
Core Principles of the Agreement
At the heart of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement is a proposed restructuring of global debt. It posits that all central banks worldwide would be required to exchange their holdings of primarily 10-year US Treasury bonds for 100-year US Treasury bonds, known as "century bonds."
-
These century bonds would be issued at a discounted price.
-
The US would allegedly pay no interest on these bonds.
-
Unlike existing US Treasury bonds, they would not be tradable on international markets.
Some have likened this to a Bretton Woods system 2.0. However, others view it as a form of debt confiscation, with the US essentially seizing the US Treasury bonds held by other nations.
Enforcement Mechanisms
The agreement allegedly includes severe consequences for countries refusing to comply.
-
High Tariffs: Nations declining to exchange their US Treasury bonds would face substantial tariffs on goods exported to the US.
-
Market Exclusion: Non-compliant countries would be effectively excluded from the US market.
-
Security Retraction: The US would allegedly withdraw security support from nations or regions, like the EU, that resist. This could include allowing Russia to act without US opposition.
Potential Implications for China
While publicly available information on the Mar-a-Lago Agreement doesn't explicitly mention China, it is speculated that the US might consider recognizing Taiwan's independence as leverage if China refuses to participate. This raises questions about the motives behind Taiwan's efforts to strengthen ties with the US.
Furthermore, Trump's earlier foray into digital currency is viewed with suspicion. If the international monetary system were to collapse under the agreement's weight, this digital currency could serve as his personal political fund.
Economic Rationale: A Weak Dollar and Manufacturing Revival
Economist Stephen Moore proposes that the root of the US manufacturing problem is the dollar's strength. He argues that while the dollar facilitates global trade, the US disproportionately bears the burden of its appreciation on its exports. The Mar-a-Lago Agreement, according to Moore's interpretation, involves a US sovereign wealth fund intervening in exchange rates to devalue the dollar, thereby revitalizing US manufacturing. This fund, purportedly established in February, would be funded by tariffs levied on foreign governments.
The Dangers of Debt Confiscation
The US attempting to devalue the dollar drastically could have severe consequences, triggering a stock, bond, and currency market crash. Stephen Moore suggests confiscating foreign held US bonds as a solution to avoid the negative consequences of a weak dollar amid high government debt.
However, forcibly taking bonds has its own problems:
-
Zero-Interest Bonds: The bonds would offer no interest, effectively devaluing the initial sum to nothing after a century.
-
Administration Fees: Further, management fees could be imposed on these bonds, resulting in net losses for the holder.
Potential Scenarios and Global Repercussions
The author mentions that there have been rumors Trump halted trade wars, perhaps due to high bond yields.
-
China's Holdings: As of January 2025, China holds \$760.8 billion in US bonds.
-
Japan's Holdings: Japan holds \$1.08 trillion in US bonds.
The author speculates that Japan refused to make concessions to the US since paying the tariff would be a better deal than having their bonds confiscated. The agreement could solve the US's trade deficit and fiscal problems. The downside is that many countries would lose wealth.
Zoltan Pozsar, Stephen Moore and Potential War
The core concepts of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement originated with Wall Street analyst Zoltan Pozsar, before being developed by Stephen Moore.
The author concludes by highlighting Zoltan Pozsar's reports.
-
Capitalizing Military Protection: Countries would have to pay for military protection by buying "century bonds".
-
Tariffs: The USA would apply tariffs. The goal is devalue the dollar, not the tariffs themselves.
-
International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA): This act can be used to confiscate bonds.